- Unprecedented parity in the title race
- Could Italy finally see its own “Leicester”?
- Opta vs bookmakers: a radical split
- Offseason shake-ups fuel the uncertainty
Unprecedented parity in the title race
In most top-five leagues, one or two clubs dominate the odds. Bayern and PSG typically open with overwhelming chances in Germany and France. In Spain, only Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico are seen as realistic contenders. The Premier League is a mild exception, with Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City clustered closely, but the rest of the “Big Six” trail behind.
Italy, however, is wide open. For the first time ever, five clubs each have at least a 10% chance of winning the title, and seven clubs fall within odds of 30.00 or shorter. By comparison, in England only four clubs reached above 3%.
Could Italy finally see its own “Leicester”?
Since 2000, every top league has produced a shock champion with long odds:
- Leicester City (5001.00) in 2015/16 (England)
- Atletico Madrid (67.00) in 2014 (Spain)
- Bayer Leverkusen (50.00) two years ago (Germany)
- Lille (67.00) in 2021 (France)
Serie A has never had such a surprise. Milan and Napoli weren’t favorites when they lifted their recent titles, but their odds were still under 20.00. Juventus’ nine-year dominance left little room for miracles. Now, though, mid-tier teams like Fiorentina, Bologna, and Como are priced around 60.00–90.00, suggesting a potential upset.
| Season | League | Champion | Pre-season/Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015/16 | England | Leicester City | 5001.00 | The biggest modern upset in top-flight football. |
| 2014 | Spain | Atlético Madrid | 67.00 | Broke Barcelona–Real Madrid duopoly. |
| 2023 | Germany | Bayer Leverkusen | 50.00 | First-ever Bundesliga title; unbeaten season. |
| 2021 | France | Lille OSC | 67.00 | Outsmarted PSG with compact defense and consistency. |
| — | Italy | ? | 60.00–90.00 | Could Fiorentina, Bologna, or Como be next? |
Opta vs bookmakers: a radical split
Bookmakers see a chaotic title race. Opta’s supercomputer does not:
- Inter are overwhelming favorites.
- Atalanta, under new management, are rated stronger than Mourinho’s Roma.
- Juventus and Milan are projected to miss out on the Champions League without major surprises.
Offseason shake-ups fuel the uncertainty
Napoli invested nearly €90m but made headlines by signing Kevin De Bruyne on a free to link up with Lukaku — though Lukaku’s injury threatens the plan.
Inter enter with new coach Cristian Chivu after Simone Inzaghi’s shocking move to Al Hilal, plus reported dressing-room tension involving Çalhanoğlu and Lautaro.
Atalanta sold Mateo Retegui for €70m and reinvested €100m, including 17-year-old fullback Onesto Ahanora for €15m + bonuses.
Roma hired Gian Piero Gasperini, adding Flamengo right-back Wesley.
Juventus stayed quiet, picking up Jonathan David on a free after his Lille contract expired.
Milan made a splash by signing Ardon Jashari from Brugge (€32m), linking him with Luka Modric under returning coach Massimiliano Allegri.